000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221527
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JAN 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 7N80W 3N95W 7N115W 8N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ARE OVER THE 
WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
IS CENTERED NEAR 25N125W AND THE SECOND IS NEAR 23N140W. THE 
CIRCULATIONS ARE WILL DEFINED ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATIONS IS NEAR 31N130W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH 
DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 25N W OF 
110W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N107W 
TO EQUATOR AT 104W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 15N 
BETWEEN 85W AND 115W HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

SURFACE HIGH PRES...1016 MB...IS LOCATED NEAR 23N119W. THE PRES 
GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED AND ELY WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO LESS THAN 
20 KT. HOWEVER LARGE NW SWELLS TO 15 FT COVER A LARGE PORTION OF 
THE AREA W OF 125W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N125W 
TO 23N127W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
HOWEVER BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 15N 
W OF 15W.

HIGH PRES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE 
PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN 20-25 KT WINDS 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS EVENT SHOULD BE SHORT 
LIVED AND WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 20 KT BY EARLY SUN.

A 1008 MB SURFACE IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA NEAR 
7N78W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE 
LOW.

$$
DGS