000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220935
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JAN 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 
06N87W TO 03N98W TO 08N122W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A WEAKENING 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 40N136W
IS ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH N OF 20N W OF 130W. THE HIGH WILL 
WEAKEN FURTHER AND SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN 
WINDS BELOW 20 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA W OF 110W. LONG PERIOD 
NW SWELLS GENERATED IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC ARE SPREADING ACROSS 
THE AREA WITH SEAS TO 16 FT. WW3 WAVE MODEL SHOWS THESE SWELLS 
REACHING 110W IN ABOUT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO AROUND 10 
TO 11 FT LATE SUN. THE LARGEST SEAS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE NW CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GAP WINDS...
WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM HIGH PRES 
ACROSS MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT 
E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IXTEPEC MEXICO REPORTS SUSTAINED 
WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A 
BRIEF HIGH WIND EVENT WITH WINDS TO 30 KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON 
WITH FRESH N WINDS CONTINUING TO PULSE THROUGH SUN MORNING. 

AN ASCAT PASS LAST NIGHT SHOWED WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA N OF 26N. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 20 
KT IN 12-24 HOURS BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-30 KT BY SUN 
MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION. 
DESPITE THE SHORT FETCH...WW3 MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS BUILDING 
TO 8 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION WILL 
BE RELATIVELY QUIET THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
MUNDELL