000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220326
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JAN 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTEND FROM 06N77W TO 
04N100W TO 08N125W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED ON A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 
38N140W...CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA ROUGHLY N OF 
20N AND W OF 110W. THE HIGH IS WEAKENING ALLOWING WINDS TO 
DIMINISH N OF 20N W OF 130W. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADE WINDS PERSISTS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
RIDGE... PARTICULARLY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 130W DUE TO THE PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. 
THE HIGH WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AND SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
RESULTING IN WINDS BELOW 20 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA W OF 
110W. 

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 19 TO 20 
SECONDS...GENERATED IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC ARE SPREADING ACROSS 
THE REGIONAL WATERS RAISING SEAS UP TO 16 FT. WW3 WAVE MODEL 
SHOWS THESE SWELLS REACHING 110W IN ABOUT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS  
SUBSIDING TO AROUND 12 FT LATE SUN. THE LARGEST SEAS WILL OCCUR 
NEAR THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GAP WINDS...
WINDS ARE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS 
HIGH PRES BUILDS S ACROSS MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY MOVES THROUGH THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA. IXTEPEC MEXICO IS REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS 
OF 25 KT WITH GUSTS OF 35 KT. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES 
FOR THE DAY SHOWED A WELL DEFINED ROPE CLOUD MOVING DOWNSTREAM 
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHICH USUALLY DELINEATES THE LEADING 
EDGE OF THE GAP WIND EVENT. THIS WILL BE A BRIEF HIGH WIND EVENT 
WITH WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH FRESH 
N WINDS CONTINUING TO PULSE THROUGH SUN MORNING. 

AN EXPERIMENTAL ASCAT 25 KM COASTAL WINDS SHOWED WINDS OF 20 TO 
25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 26N. THESE WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS BUT WILL 
INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-30 KT BY SUN MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRES 
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION. DESPITE THE SHORT FETCH...
NOAA WAVE WATCH III GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY LATE SUN.

WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION WILL 
BE RELATIVELY QUIET THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
GR