000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210940
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTEND FROM 06N77W TO 
05N105W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...
NEARLY STATIONARY 1031 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 37N138W EXTENDS
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ROUGHLY N OF 20N W OF 130W. 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
ITCZ IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH NE TRADE WINDS W OF 130W. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN EVEN FURTHER IN NW PART OF 
AREA AND N OF 30N W OF CALIFORNIA. EXPECT WINDS TO BE LESS THAN 
20 KT OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. 

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL GENERATED IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL REACH 
EXTREME NW PART OF AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE SPREADING SE  
THROUGH SUN. WW3 WAVE MODEL SHOWS SEAS PEAKING AT AROUND 16 FT 
NEAR 30N140W LATE TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDING TO LARGE AREA OF 11 TO 
12 FT SEAS OVER W PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUN MORNING.

GAP WINDS...
THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER 
TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS S ACROSS MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL BE A BRIEF HIGH 
WIND EVENT WITH WINDS PEAKING AT 25-30 KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS WITH 
FRESH N WINDS CONTINUING TO PULSE DIURNALLY ANOTHER 36-48 HOURS.

WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 25 KT IN NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. 20-25 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS S 
TO 27N AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION.  

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210940 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 
05N105W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...
NEARLY STATIONARY 1031 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 37N138W EXTENDS
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ROUGHLY N OF 20N W OF 130W. 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
ITCZ IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH NE TRADE WINDS W OF 130W. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN EVEN FURTHER IN NW PART OF 
AREA AND N OF 30N W OF CALIFORNIA. EXPECT WINDS TO BE LESS THAN 
20 KT OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. 

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL GENERATED IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL REACH 
EXTREME NW PART OF AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE SPREADING SE  
THROUGH SUN. WW3 WAVE MODEL SHOWS SEAS PEAKING AT AROUND 16 FT 
NEAR 30N140W LATE TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDING TO LARGE AREA OF 11 TO 
12 FT SEAS OVER W PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUN MORNING.

GAP WINDS...
THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER 
TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS S ACROSS MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL BE A BRIEF HIGH 
WIND EVENT WITH WINDS PEAKING AT 25-30 KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS WITH 
FRESH N WINDS CONTINUING TO PULSE DIURNALLY ANOTHER 36-48 HOURS.

WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 25 KT IN NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. 20-25 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS S 
TO 27N AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION.  

$$
MUNDELL