000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N78W 
TO 04N95W TO 08N110W TO 1010 MB LOW NEAR 09N115W TO 08N130W TO 
08N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 06N E OF 
80W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF 
LOW CENTER AND NEAR 10N111W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 37N134W EXTENDING A 
RIDGE SE OVER FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING 20 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 16N W 
OF 134W. AN AREA OF NLY WINDS 20 KT ARE ALSO NOTED ON THE 
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE PER THE 1830 UTC ASCAT PASS. 
THESE WINDS ARE COVERING THE REGION N OF 27N BETWEEN 121W AND 
130W. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE NLY 
OF 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 125W DURING THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH PRES MOVE SLOWLY WWD. 

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WAVE PERIODS BETWEEN 16 TO 18 SECONDS... 
GENERATED FROM A LARGE AND INTENSE STORM CENTER WELL NW OF THE 
REGION PREVAIL OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA WITH COMBINED SEAS 
TO 13 FT. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD SE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
WHILE SLIGHTLY SUBSIDING. A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL SHOULD REACH 
THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. 

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT ACROSS THE N PORTION OF 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY THU AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE 
GREAT BASIN.

$$
GR