000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171511
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 
05.5N78W TO 04.5N90W TO 08N110W TO 06.5N127W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N AND 45 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 127W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N AND 30 
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE 1029 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 39N134W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ 
IS MAINTAINING FRESH 20 KT TRADES W OF 124W. THE TRADES ARE 
ENHANCING LATENT SURFACE FLUX AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE ITCZ 
ENHANCING CONVECTION W OF 125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE SURFACE HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE AND TROUGHING OVER THE SW US IS 
MAINTAINING FRESH N TO NE WINDS N OF 23 N BETWEEN 123W AND 130W. 
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA THROUGH 48 HOURS 
MAINTAINING THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES W OF 135W AND FRESH 
NORTHERLY WINDS N OF 25N BETWEEN 122W AND 133W. LONG PERIOD 
12-15 SEC SWELL HAS ENTERED THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA. THESE 
SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE AREA W OF 120W AND N OF 08N 
THROUGH 48 HOURS. 

$$
AL