000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JAN 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 08N113W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 11N W OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES TROUGH 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE 
WINDS W OF 128W IN AN AREA ROUGHLY FROM 08N TO 20N...WITH SEAS 
TO 10 FT. N WINDS 20-25 KT E OF THE RIDGE ARE LOCATED OFF THE 
COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH ARE GENERATING N SWELL TO 8 
FT JUST N OF 30N.

A CUT-OFF TROUGH EXTENDING DEEP OF THE TROPICS ALONG 143-145W IS 
PROVIDING A GOOD OUTLET FOR UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUSTAINED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE 
JUST N OF THE ITCZ NEAR 10N135W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE 
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THE WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE W AND DISSIPATE.

LOOKING AHEAD...AN AREA OF W TO NW SWELL IS DEPICTED BY THE WW3 
WAVE MODEL TO REACH THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA MON WITH 
SEAS TO 13 FT WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 11 FT TUE. 
STRONGER N WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL PUSH AN AREA 
OF 9-10 FT SEAS S OF 30N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W EARLY TUE. GAP 
WINDS IN THE USUAL FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$
MUNDELL