000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JAN 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 06N94W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 12N W OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...
1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N130W EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER 
NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO 28N150W. PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ 
IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS W OF 125W IN AN AREA 
ROUGHLY FROM 07N TO 20N...WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. N WINDS TO 25 KT E 
OF THE HIGH ARE FOUND OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH 
ARE GENERATING N SWELL OF 7-8 FT IN THE NE PORTION OF DISCUSSION 
AREA. 

A CUT-OFF TROUGH EXTENDING DEEP OF THE TROPICS ALONG 143-145W IS 
PROVIDING A GOOD OUTLET FOR UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUSTAINED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE 
JUST N OF THE ITCZ NEAR 10N135W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE 
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THE WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE W AND DISSIPATE.

LOOKING AHEAD...AN AREA OF W TO NW SWELL IS DEPICTED BY THE WW3 
WAVE MODEL TO REACH THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA MON WITH 
SEAS TO 13 FT WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 11 FT TUE. 
STRONGER N WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL PUSH AN AREA 
OF 9-10 FT SEAS S OF 30N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W EARLY TUE. GAP 
WINDS IN THE USUAL FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$
MUNDELL