000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161516
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JAN 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 7N77W 5N95W 7N110W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 100W TO 105W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 
125N-139W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 12N109W TO 27N130W, A COL 
SEPARATES THE RIDGE FROM A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION N OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 25N W OF 105W.
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO FROM THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS SW TO THE 
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS A 70-75 KT WLY JET STREAM FROM THE SOUTHERN 
HEMISPHERE IS S OF 3N W OF 12WW. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
IS S OF THE ITCZ E OF 125W.

A HIGH PRES IS N OF 15N W OF 120W. PRES GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF ELY 
20 KT TRADE WINDS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE GRADIENT 
SHOULD LOOSEN.

NE WIND TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO 
DECREASE TO BELOW 20 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

$$
DGS