000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160352
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JAN 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 04N77W TO 05N105W TO 08N115W TO 06N123W TO 07N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 19W TO 
115W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS W OF 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N114W TO 21N140W. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR MASS N OF 24N. BROAD 
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE CENTERED AT 07N109W ADVECTS LARGE AMOUNTS OF 
MOISTURE DEBRIS FROM ITCZ CONVECTION RIDING IN WEAK 45-55 KT JET 
CORE TOWARD THE N AND NE WHERE IT MEETS VERY DRY SUBSIDING AIR 
MASS FROM ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH. FURTHER E...LARGE AMPLITUDE 
TROUGH ALOFT DIGS SW FROM TEXAS TO 12N105W WITH MODERATE 
DIFFLUENT FLOW ENHANCING MINOR SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E 
OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 117W.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES 1030 MB AT 34N133W IS FORCING NNW 
WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE 
FUNNELING DOWN TO 26N. HIGH PRES EXPECTED TO MOVE N DIMINISHING 
WINDS TO A MODERATE BREEZE. MODERATE TO FRESH NE BREEZE ALONG 
TRADE WIND BELT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY MON AS HIGH PRES MOVES 
AWAY FROM BASIN.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO STRONG BREEZE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 20 KT 
TONIGHT. 

$$
WALLY BARNES