000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152149
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JAN 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 04N77W TO 05N105W TO 08N115W TO 06N123W TO 07N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 107W 
TO 118W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS W OF 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 28N125W TO 
19N140W.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR N OF 
24N.  BROAD DOWNSTREAM RIDGE CENTERED AT 08N118W ADVECTS LARGE 
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE DEBRIS FROM ITCZ CONVECTION RIDING IN WEAK 
40-50 KT JET CORE TOWARD THE N AND NE WHERE IT MEETS VERY DRY 
SUBSIDING AIR MASS FROM E EXTENSION OF CYCLONIC VORTEX.  FURTHER 
E...LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALOFT DIGS SW FROM TEXAS TO 07N113W 
WITH MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW ENHANCING MINOR SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION E OF OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 116W.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES 1030 MB AT 33N133W FORCING N-NW WINDS 
DOWN THE GAP N OF GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE 
FUNNELING DOWN TO 26N.  HIGH PRES EXPECTED TO MOVE N DIMINISHING 
WINDS TO A MODERATE BREEZE.  MODERATE TO FRESH NE BREEZE ALONG 
TRADE WIND BELT IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY MON AS HIGH PRES MOVES 
AWAY FROM BASIN.  

GALE EVENT AT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1800 UTC 
WITH REMNANT STRONG N-NE BREEZE EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE 
WITHIN 48 HRS.  SIMILARLY...GULF OF PAPAGAYO FRESH BREEZE 
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT. 

$$
WALLY BARNES