000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150321
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JAN 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N87W 
TO 05N96W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 123W AND BETWEEN 129W AND 
134W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE IS A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST NORTH 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N132W. A MODERATE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING A 
LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT NE TRADEWINDS FROM GENERALLY 08N TO 
25N W OF 120W. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FT ARE 
OCCURRING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF NE WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL 
OVER THIS AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY 
STATIONARY...THOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND... 
REDUCING THE TRADES OF 20 KT TO A SMALLER AREA FROM 11N TO 19N W 
OF 133W BY LATE SUNDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N139W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE 
MOIST...MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND RELATIVELY DIVERGENT FLOW 
ALOFT OVER AN AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ REGION BETWEEN 100W AND 
140W. THIS IS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS AS REFERENCED 
ABOVE.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS NW WINDS OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF THE 
STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEVADA-UTAH AND 
LOWER PRESSURES OVER NW MEXICO. THIS GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE FOR 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS PRODUCING 20 TO 25 KT NW WINDS OVER THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA N OF 23N.

GAP EVENTS...
THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC WIND EVENT IS GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN DUE 
TO MORE E TO SE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE 
MEXICAN STATION IXTEPEC IS REPORTING NORTH WINDS 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. CURRENT BEST ESTIMATE IS PEAK WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF 45 KT. THIS SMALL PEAK WIND AREA S-SW OF THE GULF WILL 
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY 15/1800 UTC 
IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WIND FIELD WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE WITH 
RESIDUAL SEAS AND SWELL OVER AN AREA SW OF THE GULF REGION 
REMAINING S OF 13N BETWEEN 92W AND 120W.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WIND EVENT ALSO CONTINUES BUT WITH MAXIMUM 
NE WINDS OF 20 KT. THIS ALSO SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 
36 HOURS AS NORTHEASTERLY TRADES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 
WEAKEN.

$$
HUFFMAN