000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142206
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N78W 
TO 04N92W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 116W AND BETWEEN 120W AND 
135W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE IS A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST NORTH 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 35N130W. A MODERATE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING A 
LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT NE TRADEWINDS FROM GENERALLY 08N TO 
25N W OF 120W. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FT ARE 
OCCURRING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF NE WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL 
OVER THIS AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY 
STATIONARY...THOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND... 
REDUCING THE TRADES OF 20 KT TO A SMALLER AREA FROM 09N TO 20N W 
OF 125W BY LATE SUNDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N138W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE 
MOIST...MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND RELATIVELY DIVERGENT FLOW 
ALOFT OVER AN AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ REGION BETWEEN 100W AND 
140W. THIS IS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS AS REFERENCED 
ABOVE.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS SOME BRISK NW WINDS AS A RESULT OF 
THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEVADA-UTAH 
AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER NW MEXICO. THIS GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE 
FOR THE NEXT DAY WITH PERSISTENT 20 TO 25 KT NW WINDS OVER THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 23N.

GAP EVENTS...
THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC WIND EVENT IS NOW IN ITS THIRD DAY. THE 
MEXICAN STATION IXTEPEC IS REPORTING N WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
40 KT. CURRENT BEST ESTIMATE IS PEAK WINDS IN THE GULF OF 45 KT. 
THIS PEAK WIND AREA S-SW OF THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH 
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY 15/1800 UTC IT IS EXPECTED THAT 
THE WIND FIELD WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE WITH RESIDUAL SEAS AND 
SWELL OVER AN AREA SW OF THE GULF REGION REMAINING.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WIND EVENT ALSO CONTINUES BUT WITH MAXIMUM 
WINDS OF 20 KT. THIS ALSO SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 
HOURS.

$$
HUFFMAN