000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141613
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JAN 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N78W 
TO 04N94W TO 06N112W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 112W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 
120W AND BETWEEN 124W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

ACTIVE MARINE WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY FOR OUR AREA OF 
RESPONSIBILITY.  THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE IS THE 1030 MB HIGH 
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AT 33N130W.  A MODERATE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT TO ITS SOUTH IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF 20 KT NE 
TRADEWINDS.  WEST OF 120W...SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 
FT ARE OCCURRING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF NE WIND WAVES AND NW 
SWELL.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY 
...THOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER...REDUCING THE TRADES TO BELOW OUR 20 
KT THRESHOLD AND LOWERING THE WAVE HEIGHTS A BIT FOR MOST OF THE 
REGION.

TWO WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED THIS MORNING ALONG 120W 
AND 135W EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS.  SOME DEEP CONVECTION IS 
OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGHS AS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE 
ITCZ SECTION.  THE 06Z GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME 
DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERNMOST TROUGH INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 
MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THIS IS NOT SEEN IN THE OTHER GLOBAL 
MODELS.  DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...MINIMAL LARGE-SCALE 
VORTICITY...AND ONLY MODERATE AMOUNTS OF CONVECTIVE 
INSTABILITY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS SOME BRISK NW WINDS AS A RESULT OF 
THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEVADA-UTAH 
AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER NW MEXICO.  THIS GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE 
FOR THE NEXT DAY AND THE COHEN-CANGIALOSI INDEX...ELY NV TO YUMA 
AZ...INDICATES A MAXIMUM OF 14 MB LATE TONIGHT.  IT IS POSSIBLE 
THAT GALE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE GULF WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
TO 30 HR...THOUGH THE FORECAST STAYS JUST BELOW THE GALE 
THRESHOLD.

GAP EVENTS...
THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC WIND EVENT IS NOW IN ITS THIRD DAY.  
WHILE IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS ARE SPARSE THIS MORNING...AS IT 
TYPICALLY THE CASE...THE MEXICAN STATION IXTEPEC IS REPORTING N 
WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.  CURRENT BEST ESTIMATE IS PEAK 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF 45 KT...THOUGH IT COULD STILL BE OF STORM 
STRENGTH IN A SMALL REGION. PEAK SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 
LIKELY CLOSE TO 20 FT IN THE GULF.  FORCING FOR THE EVENT WILL 
FINALLY BE SUBSIDING IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  WINDS SHOULD DROP 
BELOW GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WIND EVENT ALSO CONTINUES BUT WITH MAXIMUM 
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT.  THIS ALSO SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS.

$$
LANDSEA