000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JAN 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N78W 
TO 05N90W TO 09N129W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 111W AND 118W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ANALYZED FROM 05N131W TO 
10N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 127W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
NEAR 32N128W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATES 
THE REGION N OF 15N. AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES IS LOCATED ON THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM GENERALLY 07N TO 20N W OF 
119W. EARLIER DAYTIME ASCAT PASSES CAPTURED THIS RATHER LARGE 
AREA OF TRADES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 
PERIOD AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS 
NEARLY STATIONARY. NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE ALSO OCCURRING 
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 23N. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES 
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED NW OF 
THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF 150W. NW SWELL FROM THE ASSOCIATED 
LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR 41N157W WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING 
THE NW WATERS WITH SEAS TO 13 FT...WHICH ARE THEN EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE SUBSIDING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GAP WINDS...
STRONG N-NE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO AIDING IN STORM FORCE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS AND 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN EARLIER MORNING WINDSAT PASS 
AROUND 13/1242 UTC SHOWED WIND RETRIEVALS TO 40 KT WITH IXTEPEC 
MEXICO ALSO REPORTING NORTH WINDS AT 45 KT GUSTING TO 55 KT. 
THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT STRONGER WINDS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING 
NEAR THE EXIT AREA OF THE GAP. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE 
FORCE BY LATE SATURDAY AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY IN THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO. 

AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 13/1518 UTC INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT 
WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 20 KT WINDS IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE GULF OF FONSECA. WHILE THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...FONSECA IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
BY LATE FRIDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN