000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131556
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JAN 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N77W 
TO 05N105W TO 08N125W TO 06N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 
09N W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF S CALIFORNIA NEAR 
31N126W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATES THE 
REGION N OF 13N. AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES IS LOCATED ON THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM GENERALLY 08N TO 24N W OF 
120W. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 
PERIOD AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS 
NEARLY STATIONARY. NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OCCURRING ALONG 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 23N. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS STRONG HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE 
GREAT BASIN. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TOUCHES THE FAR NW 
PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. NW SWELL IN THE 
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE NW WATERS RAISING SEAS UP TO 
13 FT TODAY...THEN SUBSIDE GENERALLY BELOW 12 FT BY LATE FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OF 16 TO 18 SECONDS 
HAS REACHED THE COASTS OF SW COLOMBIA AND WESTERN ECUADOR. A NEW 
SWELL TRAIN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE 
NW PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST WATERS W 
OF 118W THROUGH LATE FRIDAY...THEN MERGE WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL 
SW SWELL NEAR 110W THEREAFTER. WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE GAP 
WIND EVENTS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WILL ALSO MERGE AND MIX 
WITH THE LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL TO CREATE AN AREA OF CONFUSED 
SEAS ROUGHLY FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 92W AND 105W BY EARLY 
FRIDAY THAT LASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.    

GAP WINDS...
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO AIDING IN STORM FORCE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS AND 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0424 UTC SHOWED 
SEVERAL WIND BARBS OF 20 TO 25 KT AS FAR W AS 10N100W...AN 
INDICATION THAT STRONGER WINDS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING NEAR THE 
EXIT OF THE GAP AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE 
TONIGHT...BUT THEN PERSIST INTO SAT. 

A HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0240 UTC PROVIDED 
OBSERVATIONS OF 20 TO 30 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
AND 20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF FONSECA. THESE GAP WIND 
EVENTS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA