000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130335
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JAN 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 05N78W 
TO 05N102W TO 08N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 07N TO 10N W OF 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 12N126W 
CONTINUES TO DOMINATES THE REGION N OF 13N. AN AREA OF FRESH 
TRADES IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 
GENERALLY 08N TO 24N W OF 120W. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED 
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE NORTH- 
CENTRAL DISCUSSION BORDER. THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ALSO HAS NW 
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT OCCURRING N OF 23N DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT SET UP BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS AND 
TROUGHING OVER WESTERN MEXICO. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE 
RIDGE TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD WHILE RIDGING 
OVER TEXAS AND EASTERN MEXICO IS REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING LOW 
PRESSURE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE FAR NW CORNER OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N140W. WHILE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN TO THE NW...SEAS GENERATED BY THE LOW OFF TO THE NW ARE 
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 13 FT BY LATE THURSDAY IN NW SWELL...THEN 
SUBSIDE GENERALLY BELOW 12 FT BY LATE FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OF 16 TO 18 SECONDS 
HAS REACHED THE COASTS OF SW COLOMBIA AND WESTERN ECUADOR. A NEW 
SWELL TRAIN FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW ABOVE HAS ENTERED THE NW 
PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 
118W THROUGH LATE FRIDAY...THEN MERGE WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW 
SWELL NEAR 110W THEREAFTER. WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE GAP WIND 
EVENTS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WILL ALSO MERGE AND MIX WITH 
THE LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL TO CREATE AN AREA OF CONFUSED SEAS BY 
EARLY FRIDAY THAT LASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.    

GAP WINDS...
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO AIDING IN STORM FORCE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS AND 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN EARLIER SHIP OBSERVATION AROUND 
12/1800 UTC NEAR 14N95W REPORTED 45 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 20 FT. 
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 14/1200 UTC... 
DIMINISHING TO GALE FORCE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS NORTHERLY 
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AGAIN TURN SOUTHERLY.

WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS EASTERLY SURGES IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BLOW THROUGH THE PASSES.

$$
HUFFMAN