000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121601
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JAN 12 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 04N77W 
TO 05N90W TO 08N120W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 
10N W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 27N123W 
CONTINUES TO DOMINATES THE REGION N OF 15N. AN AREA OF FRESH 
TRADE WINDS CAN BE FOUND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE 
FROM 09N TO 20N W OF 115W. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE AERIAL EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF 
THE TRADES WILL INCREASE IN 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS 
JUST N OF AREA. THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ALSO HAS NW WINDS OF 
20 TO 25 KT FROM 23N TO 27N. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. 
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE SEEN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...AHEAD OF A NEW COLD FRONT CURRENTLY 
APPROACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO 
BUILD TO 13 FT IN NW SWELL.

ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO 
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC. PERIOD OF 16 TO 18 SECONDS 
ARE NOTED AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL TRAIN WHICH IS NOW 
REACHING 85W. A NEW SWELL TRAIN FROM THE NW HAS ENTERED THE NW 
PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST WATERS TODAY 
MERGING WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL NEAR 100W. WIND WAVES 
GENERATING BY THE GAP WIND EVENTS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO 
WILL ALSO MERGE TODAY. THESE SHORTER PERIOD SEAS OUT OF THE NE 
WILL MIX WITH THE LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL TO CREATE AN AREA OF 
CONFUSED SEAS ROUGHLY FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN 90W AND 105W.    

GAP WINDS...
35-40 KT N WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHERE A STORM 
WARNING IS IN EFFECT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH STORM FORCE BY 
13/0000 UTC AS THE MAIN SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MAKES IT WAY THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND 
EXITS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE LATE THU...BUT THEN PERSIST INTO 
FRI. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 18 FT.   

WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS EASTERLY SURGES IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BLOW THROUGH THE PASSES.

$$
FORMOSA