000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 06N80W TO 09N116W TO 07N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS ANALYZED FROM 15N114W TO 09N116W WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 111W AND 
118W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS 
LOCATED WELL N OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS FROM 
36N126W TO 26N133W. THIS TROUGH IS PROVIDING MARGINAL SUPPORT 
FOR A COLD FRONT THAT BECOMES DIFFUSE NEAR THE FORECAST WATERS 
NEAR 30N135W. SEAS BEHIND THIS FEATURE REMAIN TO 9 FT IN NW 
SWELL AND THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT WITHIN 
24 HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP ON THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 125W BY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY INCREASING WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE NW CORNER 
AND SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT IN NW SWELL.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER CENTERED NEAR 28N125W. AN AREA OF NE TO E TRADES 
EXISTS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 08N TO 20N W 
OF 114W. RECENT ASCAT PASSES DEPICTED THIS RATHER LARGE AREA OF 
TRADES THAT IS EXPECTED TO COMPRESS WESTWARD AND EXPAND 
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES NE. AS 
THE RIDGE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT 
WILL PRODUCE STRONG 20 TO 25 KT NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA.

GAP WINDS...
WITH A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS TEXAS AND 
NE MEXICO...GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AREA WITH WIND SPEEDS 30 TO 35 KT...AND ARE EXPECTED 
TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 
KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS EASTERLY SURGES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA BLOW THROUGH THE PASSES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
HUFFMAN