000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111606
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 06N79W...
TO 06N105W TO 11N112W 08N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 06N TO 07N 
BETWEEN 79W AND 80W...AND FROM 05N TO 06N BETWEEN 80W AND 81W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 111W AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
120W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WELL 
N OF THE AREA EXTENDS FROM 40N135W SE TO 32N134W. THIS TROUGH IS 
PROVIDING MARGINAL SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH 30N135W 27N138W. 
THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR 
SO. THE SOUTHERLY 20 KT WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE AREA GRADUALLY WILL WEAKEN AS THE TROUGH 
DISSIPATES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FAR 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
INCREASING WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N126W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS 
THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 136W.
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WINDS WILL RETURN RANGE FROM 20 KT TO
25 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND CONTINUE INTO 48 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN AND THE WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE 
AGAIN.

THE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES
FROM 06N OR 07N TO 20N ROUGHLY TO THE WEST OF 110W.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N111W TO 07N115W.
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND IT WILL DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY 20 KT WINDS
ARE NEAR THE TROUGH...BUT ALSO PART OF THE LARGER-SCALE
TRADE WIND FLOW.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA...TO THE WEST OF 90W. PERIODS OF 18 TO 20 SECONDS ARE 
NOTED AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL TRAIN THAT IS IMPACTING 
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. A NEW SWELL TRAIN HAS ENTERED THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND IT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA 
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. 

GAP WINDS...
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN THE COAST 
OF MEXICO EAST OF THE SIERRA MADRE LATER TODAY. WIND SPEEDS OF 
20 KT TO 25 KT ALREADY ARE IN THE WATERS. 20 KT HAVE BEEN 
REPORTED ALONG THE MEXICO COAST NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A SURGE OF DENSE COLD AIR WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC RESULTING IN STORM FORCE WINDS 
STARTING DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS. 

WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS 
EASTERLY SURGES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BLOW THROUGH 
THE PASSES. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ENHANCED AND INCREASE TO 
25 KT BY LATE WED AS THE COLD SURGE IN THE TEHUANTEPEC MAKES ITS 
WAY THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA.  

$$
MT