000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110324
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JAN 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS IS ALONG 07N78W TO 06N95W TO 11N110W TO 07N125W TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 
123W.

...DISCUSSION...

WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WELL 
NW OF THE AREA EXTENDS FROM 40N137W SE TO 32N134W. THIS TROUGH 
IS PROVIDING MARGINAL SUPPORT FOR A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT 
WHICH EXTENDED FROM 30N135W TO 25N140W. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS 
RAPIDLY NE...THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT WANES AND THE 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 18 TO 24 HOURS. THE S TO 
SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FOUND WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT AND N 
OF 26N WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. 

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N127W THROUGH 24N115W TO 
18N110W WITH ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA N OF 
15N AND W OF 110W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER 
PRESSURES OVER MEXICO HAS WEAKENED AND THE AREA OF 20 KT WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST HAS SUBSIDED. HOWEVER AS STRONG 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 
HOURS NW TO N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WITHIN 12 HOURS...AND TO 30 KT BY 48 HOURS. 
 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N110W TO 07N114W. NE WINDS 
OF 20 KT WERE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 
ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO 
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC COVERING MOST OF THE AREA W 
OF 90W. PERIOD OF 18 TO 20 SECONDS WERE NOTED AT THE LEADING 
EDGE OF THE SWELL TRAIN WHICH WAS NOW IMPACTING THE GALAPAGOS 
ISLANDS. A NEW SWELL TRAIN HAS ENTERED THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
AREA AND WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA LATER TUE AND WED. 

GAP WINDS...
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN THE COAST 
OF MEXICO EAST OF THE SIERRA MADRE LATER TUE. THE ASSOCIATED 
SURGE OF DENSE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC RESULTING IN GALE 
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE NAM AND THE GFS MODELS FORECAST 
NLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KT TUE NIGHT...AND A FURTHER INCREASE OF 
THE WINDS TO STORM FORCE...50 KT...BY LATE WED WITH SEAS 
BUILDING UP TO 18 FT. A STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 48 HOURS. 

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS EASTERLY SURGES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA BLOW THROUGH THE PASSES. THE WINDS WILL BECOME 
MORE ENHANCED AND INCREASE TO 25 KT BY LATE WED AS THE COLD 
SURGE IN THE TEHUANTEPEC MAKES ITS WAY DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL 
AMERICA.  

$$
COBB