000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102207
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS IS ALONG 07N78W TO 06N95W TO 11N108W TO 07N125W TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 
125W...AND BETWEEN 133W AND 137W. 

...DISCUSSION...

WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WELL 
NW OF THE AREA EXTENDS FROM 38N138W SE TO 31N135W. THIS TROUGH 
WAS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM 
30N135W TO 26N140W. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS RAPIDLY NE...UPPER LEVEL 
SUPPORT FOR THE COLD FRONT WANES AND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE S TO SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT 
FOUND WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT AND N OF 26N WILL GRADUALLY 
WEAKEN AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. 

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N127W THROUGH 24N115W TO 
18N110W WITH ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA N OF 
15N AND W OF 110W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER 
PRESSURES OVER MEXICO HAS WEAKENED AND THE AREA OF 20 KT WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST HAS SUBSIDED. HOWEVER AS STRONG 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 
HOURS NW TO N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. 
 
THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED EARLIER NEAR 10N110W HAS 
DEGENERATED INTO A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM 14N108W TO 
08N112W. NE WINDS OF 20 KT WERE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL 
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC COVERING MOST 
OF THE AREA W OF 90W. PERIOD OF 18 TO 20 SECONDS WERE NOTED AT 
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL TRAIN WHICH WAS NOW APPROACHING 
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. A NEW SWELL TRAIN IS ENTERING THE FAR NW 
PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA TUE AND WED. 

GAP WINDS...
A SURGE OF COLD DENSE AIR IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO TUE THROUGH THU...AND IS EXPECTED TO DELIVER A GALE 
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY M=TUE EVENING. THE NAM AND THE GFS 
MODELS FORECAST NLY WINDS RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KT BY WED 
WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 15 FT. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN 
ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN 30 HOURS. WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IN ABOUT 24 
HOURS AS EASTERLY SURGES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 
BLOWING THROUGH THE PASSES.

$$
COBB