000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

FROM THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 06N79W TO 
05N95W TO THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N110W 
TO 06N130W TO 07N140W. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 
06N79W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN 78W AND 79W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 07N BETWEEN 78W 
AND 79W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN 80W AND 81W. 
SCATTERED MODERATED RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO THE NORTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N129W 27N129W 14N123W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA COVER THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 
14N BETWEEN 110W AND 140W. SOUTHERLY WINDS RANGING FROM 20 KT TO 
25 KT WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 12 FEET WILL COVER 
THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS TO THE NORTH OF 20N 
TO THE WEST OF 132W. NORTHERLY WINDS REACHING 20 KT AND SEA 
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 10 FEET WILL COVER THE WATERS TO 
THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 120W. A LARGE-SCALE DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH IS JUST TO THE WEST OF 140W...HELPING TO SET UP THE
20 KT WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THIS SITUATION 
ULTIMATELY AFFECTS THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE 
ALSO...GIVING SOME AREAS OF 20 KT WINDS. A COLD FRONT PASSES 
THROUGH 32N136W BEYOND 26N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS 
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 
LINE FROM 23N140W 27N136W 30N134W...TO THE EAST OF THE COLD 
FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
IN WESTERN MEXICO. 

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N110W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 09.5N 
TO 11N BETWEEN 106W AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO 
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 108W 
AND 109W...FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 107W AND 108W...FROM 13N TO 
14N BETWEEN 105W AND 106W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 
14N107.5W.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE 
REGIONAL WATERS COVERING MOST OF THE AREA W OF 100W.
ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL SHOULD REACH THE FAR NW PORTION TODAY. 

GAP WINDS...
A SURGE OF COLD DENSE AIR IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO TUE THROUGH THU...AND COULD DELIVER A GALE FORCE WIND 
EVENT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY WED. THE NAM AND 
THE GFS MODELS FORECAST NLY WINDS RANGING FROM 30 KT TO 40 KT BY 
WED AT 1200 UTC WITH SEAS BUILDING QUICKLY UP TO 13 FT THERE.
A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN
42 HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS EASTERLY SURGES IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BLOWING THROUGH THE PASSES.

$$
MT