000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100336 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON JAN 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 6N81W 8N96W TO 7N102W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 9N110W TO 6N123W TO 7N133W 7N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N129W TO 24N120W TO 20N110W. A SERIES OF LOWS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTS ARE TO THE NW OF THE REGION. ALOFT...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY PRONOUNCED LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGH ADVANCING EASTWARD TO JUST W OF THE REGION. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BROAD SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND THE RIDGE IS RESULTING IN SE TO S WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT OVER THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 133W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN DIMINISH TO ABOUT 20 KT BY 48 HOURS. SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FT WILL PLAGUE THESE WATERS...THEN SUBSIDE TO 8 TO 11 FT IN 24 HOURS AND TO 10 FT IN 48 HOURS. OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE REGION...A MOSTLY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 32N130W TO 25N132W TO 20N136W TO 15N140W. EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUES TO BE TAPPED FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND CHANNELED INTO THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY CROSSED 140W TO THE N OF 27N. THIS MOSITURE THEN THINS OUT IN A DRIER ENVIRONMENT AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD TOWARDS 120W...AND TO ACROSS W CENTRAL MEXICO. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE ON THE RATHER LIGHT SIDE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 6N TO 18N BETWEEN 115W AND 137W WHERE THE GRADIENT SUPPORTS NE TO E WINDS OF 20 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS VALID 1822 UTC YESTERDAY AFTERNOON DEPICTED THESE WIND SPEEDS. ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 20N W OF 110W AND S OF 5N W OF 130W WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELLS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS JUST MOVED INLAND THE SW U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IN ITS WAKE N OF 22N AND E OF 128W. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...OVER THE PACIFIC...EXTENDS FROM 18N111W SE TO ACROSS THE LOW NEAR 9N110W AND TO NEAR 9N106W. MODERATE TO STRONG SW WINDS ARE WITHIN 120-150 NM E OF THE TROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR 9N110W TO BE WITHIN 30 NM OF 11N108W ...WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY JUST RECENTLY HAVING DEVELOPED WITHIN 70 NM N AND S OF THE LOW CENTER. POSSIBLE 20 KT WINDS MAY EXIST WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW IN THE E SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS OF 8 FT. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE LOW TO TRACK IN A GENERAL WNW DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE REMAINING RATHER WEAK. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THIS LOW HAS BECOME RATHER HOSTILE AS UPPER LEVEL SW-W WINDS PRODUCED BY THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH... CONTINUE TO IMPINGE ON DEEP CONVECTION THAT FORMS AROUND AND NEAR THE LOW. HOWEVER...A TIGHT ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT N OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR NE TO E 20 KT OVER THE AREA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W BY 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS... A SURGE OF COLD DENSE AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SURGE OF COLD AIR MAY LEAD TO AN ONSET OF GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING QUICKLY THERE. GULF OF PAPAGAYO NE TO E 20 KT WINDS SHOULD BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND LASTING INTO 48 HOURS. $$ AGUIRRE