000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JAN 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
FROM 06N77W TO 08N83W TO 07N97W TO 1008 MB LOW NEAR 09N108W TO 
05N128W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 88W.
W...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 
103W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 110W 
AND 111W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N129W TO 25N123W TO 16N116W.
SOUTHERLY WINDS RANGING FROM 20 KT TO 25 KT WITH SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 12 FEET WILL COVER THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 
132W. NORTHERLY WINDS REACHING 20 KT AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING
FROM 8 FEET TO 10 FEET WILL COVER THE WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 20N 
TO THE EAST OF 120W. A LARGE-SCALE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS JUST TO 
THE WEST OF 140W...HELPING TO SET UP THE 20 KT WINDS TO THE WEST 
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THIS SITUATION ULTIMATELY AFFECTS THE 
WATERS THAT ARE TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE ALSO...GIVING SOME
AREAS OF 20 KT WINDS.

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE ITCZ NEAR 9N108W.
THE LATEST ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
WITH WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 120 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN 
QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 150 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF THE LOW CENTER. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE 
LOW TO TRACK IN A GENERAL WNW DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
WHILE REMAINING RATHER WEAK. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND 
THE RIDGE TO ITS N WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF NE TO E WINDS OF 20 
KT WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER IN ABOUT 48 
HOURS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS ALONG 
WITH THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE UPPER 
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THIS LOW HAS BECOME RATHER HOSTILE AS 
UPPER LEVEL WLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SPEEDS.
 
LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE 
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...TO THE WEST OF 110W. A SEPARATE 
BODY OF NORTHWESTERLY SWELL SHOULD REACH THE FAR NORTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE AREA BY MONDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD...A SURGE OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THAT SURGE OF COLD AIR MAY DELIVER A GALE FORCE WIND 
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY WEDNESDAY.

$$
MT