000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JAN 08 2011

UPDATED TO ADD PARAGRAPH AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW 
NEAR 9N105W

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N81W
TO 5N92W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 8N107W TO 6N123W TO 5N132W TO 
4N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE INTO THE AREA FROM A PARENT HIGH
ANCHORED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N131W...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE
STRETCHING SW TO 23N124W TO NEAR 19N140W. WELL TO THE NW OF THE 
AREA A 1000 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR 37N157W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED 
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SE TO 30N142W...THEN BECOMES STATIONARY 
TO SOUTHWARD TO WELL W OF THE AREA NEAR 20N149W. WINDS AHEAD
THIS SYSTEM ARE AFFECTING THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA N
OF 23N W OF 135W WHERE WINDS ARE 20-25 KT ARE NOTED. THESE WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN DIMINSIH
SOME BY  48 HOURS WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT IN LARGE NW SWELLS
...SUBSIDING TO 10 FT BY 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE A RELATIVELY PRES GRADIENT EXISTS THROUGHOUT...WITH 
THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 
7N TO 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W WHERE THE GRADIENT SUPPORTS NE TO
E WINDS OF 20 KT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. AN ASCAT
PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE FROM 
6N TO 20N W OF 110W AND S OF 6N W OF 129W WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 
KT WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN LARGE NW LONG PERIOD SWELLS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD SWLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N105W 
ADVECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS OF THE 
CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
TO INLAND NW MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH 
THIS MOISTURE AREA.
 
THE LOW NEAR 8N107W CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT CLUSTERS OF DEEP 
CONVECTION OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TYPE 
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRLCE OF THE 
CIRCULATION. AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED SE TO 
S 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SE QUADRANT.
THE PASS ALSO SHOWED SLY 20 KT WINDS FEEDING INTO THE CIRCULATION
ELSEWHERE S OF THE LOW BETWEEN 105W AND 109W. THE GLOBAL MODELS 
CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE LOW TO TRACK IN A GENERAL WNW DIRECTION 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE REMAINING RATHER. HOWEVER...WITH THE
PERSISTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION THE 20 TO 25 KT COULD REACH GUSTS
TO 30 KT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 
HOURS BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES HOSTILE AS 
UPPER LEVEL WLY WINDS BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE DEEP CONVECTION.

$$
AGUIRRE