000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081602
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JAN 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

FROM 03N77W TO THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
09N107W...TO 07N123W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 105W 
AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 83W AND 84W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 105W IN MEXICO AND 130W. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO
EXTEND FROM AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS 
IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TO 20N122W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY 
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO THE EAST
OF 120W...INCLUDING ACROSS MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N105W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N107W...TO 6N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 
103W AND 108W. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS
IS FOR COMPARATIVELY LITTLE INTENSIFICATION OR DEEPENING OF THE 
LOW PRESSURE CENTER...WITH WINDS CLOSE TO 20 KT AND SEAS RANGING
FROM 8 FEET TO 9 FEET WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. IT IS 
POSSIBLE THAT ANY 20 KT WINDS ALSO MAY BE PART OF THE NEARBY 
TRADE WIND FLOW. THE SEA HEIGHTS ALSO MAY BE MORE RELATED TO
THE LARGER-SCALE SWELL IN THE AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N131W TO 21N125W TO 14N115W.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA...BUT NOT ENTER IT...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO
48 HOURS. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 20 KT TO 25 KT AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET
TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF 130W.

NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO REACH 
20 KT IN THE AREA FROM 8N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 120W DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT 20 KT WINDS
WILL BE IN THE AREA ROUGHLY FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 110W AND 
120W DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 20 KT AFTER THAT TIME PERIOD.

A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WESTERN ARIZONA 
INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
THE TROUGH STARTS AS A COMMON CLIMATOLOGICAL FEATURE...AND THEN
EVENTUALLY A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS WITH A TROUGH TO THE 
SOUTH OF IT.

LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL...WITH WAVE PERIODS RANGING
FROM 16 TO 18 SECONDS...WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TOWARD THE 
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. THE SEA HEIGHTS MAY REACH 11 FEET
OR 12 FT.

$$
MT