000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JAN 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 08N83W TO 
05N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N106W TO 06N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1025 MB MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE 
AREA DOMINATES THE WATERS MAINLY N OF 15N AND W OF 110W. TO THE 
NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...A 994 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR 
37N152W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING 30N140W BUT 
WILL REMAIN W OF AREA AS THE GALE CENTER LIFTS NWD. WINDS AHEAD 
OF THIS SYSTEM ARE AFFECTING THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA 
PARTICULARLY N OF 25N W OF 135W. SHIP ZCDA9 LOCATED IN THIS AREA 
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KT. WINDS AROUND 20 KT ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS N OF 25N AND W OF 
133W WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT IN LARGE NW SWELLS. AN AREA OF 
TRADE WINDS IS ALSO NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE 
COVERING THE REGION FROM 07N TO 20N W OF 125W. THIS WEATHER 
PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE 
REMAINS IN PLACE. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES 
OVER WESTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING NW WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 180 NM 
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH 
BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH TODAY.

A 1007 MB LOW IS ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 08N106W. DEEP CONVECTION 
HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND WILL LIKELY 
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. ACCORDING TO THE COMPUTER MODELS...THIS 
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN A W TO NW DIRECTION DURING THE 
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. SEAS OF 9 FT IN NW SWELL CAN BE FOUND NEAR 
THE LOW CENTER.

A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 30N118W AND IS 
THE REFLECTION OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...WAVE PERIODS BETWEEN 16 TO 18 SECONDS 
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS 
BUILDING SEA HEIGHTS UP TO 11 OR 12 FT.

$$
GR