000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080341
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JAN 08 2011

UPDATED TO ADD PARAGRAPH AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW 
NEAR 9N105W

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS CENTERED FROM LOW PRES 
NEAR 5N79W 1007 MB TO 5N90W TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR 8N105W 1007 MB
TO 6N115W TO 6N128W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 101W-108W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N123W TO 19N127W. 
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA SSW TO 21N124W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 
MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N130W SW TO JUST W OF THE 
AREA NEAR 20N142W...AND ANOTHER RIDGE SE TO 19N113W. TO THE NW 
OF THE AREA A 994 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR 37N152W WITH ITS 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SE TO 30N141W AND THEN SW AS A 
STATIONARY FRONT TO JUST PASSED THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. WINDS 
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ARE AFFECTING THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF 
THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 23N140W TO 32N135W WHERE WINDS ARE 
20-25 KT ARE NOTED. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE 
FAR NW PORTION WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT IN LARGE NW SWELLS.

ELSEWHERE A RELATIVELY PRES GRADIENT EXISTS THROUGHOUT...WITH 
THE EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE REGION FROM 15N TO 
21N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W WHERE THE GRADIENT SUPPORTS N TO NE 
WINDS OF 20 KT WITH SEAS THERE UP TO 8 FT. NE TO E TRADES OF 
20 KT ARE WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED FROM 7N TO 20N AND W OF 110W
WHERE LARGE NW SWELLS ARE PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. THIS AREA
IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH SOME THROUGH SUN NIGHT...HOWEVER NW 
SWELLS WILL PREVAIL WITH WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE STILL DEPICTING
SEAS LOWERING TO 8 FT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD SLWY FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N105W 
ADVECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS OF THE 
CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
TO INLAND NW MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH 
THIS MOISTURE AREA.
 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MODELS FORECAST SURFACE RIDGING TO 
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA N OF 20N AND STRENGTHEN. 
THIS WILL MAINTAIN NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE AREA N OF
20N E OF 110W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BUT THEN
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 30 HOURS.

THE LOW NEAR 8N105W HAS ACQUIRED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 
24 HOURS AS MENTIONED UNDER ITCZ...AND IS FORECAST BY THE 
GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WNW DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS. WINDS VERY NEAR THE LOW CENTER MAY HAVE INCREASED
TO 20 KT WITH THE DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION UNDER  BROAD 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
REFERENCED IN ABOVE PARAGRAPH. UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE DATA
SHOWS SLY WINDS INCREASING TO THE W OF THE LOW...AND THIS SHOULD
PRECLUDE THE CONVECTION FROM HAVING A LONG DURATION AS THE 
LOW MOVES FURTHER WNW.

$$
AGUIRRE