000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072246
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2245 UTC FRI JAN 07 2011

UPDATED TO ADD PARAGRAPH AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW 
NEAR 9N105W

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2230 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS CENTERED FROM LOW PRES 
NEAR 5N79W 1011 MB TO 5N90W TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR 9N105W TO 6N113W 
TO 7N128W TO 6N135W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW NEAR 9N105W IN THE N 
SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W-84W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N123W TO 19N127W. 
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA SSW TO 21N124W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 
MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N130W SW TO JUST W OF THE 
AREA NEAR 20N142W...AND ANOTHER RIDGE SE TO 19N113W. TO THE NW 
OF THE AREA A 995 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 36N150W WITH ITS 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSE TO 29N142W AND THEN SW AS A 
STATIONARY FRONT TO JUST PASSED THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. WINDS 
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ARE AFFECTING THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF 
THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 23N140W TO 32N135W WHERE WINDS ARE 
20-25 KT ARE NOTED. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT IN LARGE NW SWELLS.

ELSEWHERE A RELATIVELY PRES GRADIENT EXISTS THROUGHOUT...WITH 
THE EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE REGION FROM 15N TO 
21N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W WHERE THE GRADIENT SUPPORTS N TO NE
WINDS OF 20 KT WITH SEAS THERE UP TO 8 FT. NE TO E WINDS OF
20 KT ARE ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY 7N123W TO 
17N112W TO 20N116W TO 11N127W TO 7N123W.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD SLWY FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N105W 
ADVECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS OF THE 
CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
TO INLAND NW MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH 
THIS MOISTURE AREA.
 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MODELS FORECAST SURFACE RIDGING TO 
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA N OF 20N AND STRENGTHEN. 
THIS WILL MAINTAIN NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE AREA N OF
20N E OF 110W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BUT THEN
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 30 HOURS.

THE LOW NEAR 9N105W HAS ACQUIRED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 
24 HOURS AS MENTIONED UNDER ITCZ...AND IS FORECAST BY THE 
GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WNW DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS. WINDS AROUND THE LOW CENTER MAY BE INCREASING TO 20-25 
KT WITH THE DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE 
UPPER LEVEL BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REFERENCED IN ABOVE PARAGRAPH.

GAP WINDS...
AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING HIGHLIGHTED N WINDS OF 20-25 KT
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REACHING AS FAR S AS 14N AND 
BETWEEN 94W-97W WITH SEA STATE IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT. WITH 
SE FLOW TAKING PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND 
EXTENDING IN DURATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE NLY FLOW 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL BEGIN TO SHARPLY SUBSIDE
WEAKENING TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

$$
AGUIRRE