000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071551 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI JAN 07 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 06N79W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 09N104W TO 07N127W TO 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... A 993 MB LOW IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 34N148W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WEST OF THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG 143W. A STATIONARY 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N130W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S-SW TO 18N138W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS IN THE FAR NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS REACHING 11 FT IN NW SWELL. A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL KEEP THE LOW FROM MAKING MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS...MAINTAINING FRESH 20 KT SE TO S WINDS OVER THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA THROUGH 48 HOURS. NW SWELLS GENERATED FROM THE LOW WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE AREA W OF 105W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A WEAK 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N121W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND TROUGHING OVER WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND AN AREA OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. THAT HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE WIND FIELD DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT...HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE IN NW SWELL OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS SE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A TROUGH FROM 13N125W TO 07N127W WAS EVIDENT IN EARLY MORNING ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASSES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH IS MAINTAINING FRESH WINDS OVER A 300 NM WIDE AREA EXTENDING NE FROM THE TROUGH. WHILE THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT...WITH SEAS REMAINING IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE IN LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL. GAP WINDS... BASED ON THE MOST RECENT HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AT THE LAND BASED STATION IXTEPEC IN OAXACA MEXICO AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS... WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER BELOW 20 KT AS WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE VEERED SOUTHERLY. $$ HUFFMAN