000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060348
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JAN 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 
7N90W 6N100W 4N118W 11N120W 12N135W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 127W-131W.

...DISCUSSION...

A RATHER STACKED 1015 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY SW IS 
NEAR 28N128W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW 28N125W TO 22N127W
TO 21N136W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A SWATH
OF N-N E 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW AND N 
QUADRANTS. THE ASCAT DATA ALSO INDICATED AN AREA OF NE-E 20-25 
KT WITHIN 180 NM NE OF THE LOW DUE TO THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT 
CREATED BETWEEN IT AND A 1028 MB HIGH CENTER LOCATED WELL N OF 
THE REGION NEAR 39N128W.

THE LOW IS TRAPPED BETWEEN A LARGE RIDGE NW OF THE REGION THAT 
IS TILTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND AN AREA OF VERY BROAD RIDGING AT 
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS TO ITS SE. THE LOW SHOULD BE NEAR 
28N129W IN 24 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AS RIDGING BUILDS S INTO 
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH MAY POSSIBLY LINGER 
FROM THE LOW TO 25N125W TO 20N135W IN 24 HOURS AS WINDS N OF 28N 
AND W OF THE LOW TO 132W DIMINISH SOME TO 20-25 KT...AND 
CONTINUE AS E-SE 20 KT WITHIN 120 NM E OF LOW TO AND TO THE N OF 
28N. BY 36 HOURS...THE LOW SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED WITH WINDS TO 
LESS THAN 20 KT...HOWEVER AN AREA OF SE-S 20-25 KT IS FORECAST 
TO INTRUDE INTO THE FAR WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE REGION WITH SEAS 
LARGE NW SWELLS RESULTING IN SEAS OF 8-10 FT TO THE N OF 22N AND 
W OF 136W.
 
FURTHER S...TRADES WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT IN 48 HOURS WITH 
LINGERING NW SWELLS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8-10 FT FROM 2N-20N W OF
90W.

NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL EXPAND
SOME WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT 
TIGHTENS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS STRENGTHENING 
HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

IN THE TROPICS...A STATIONARY 1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE FAR 
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR 6N678W...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY 
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N WINDS OF 20 KT WILL MATERIALIZE IN ABOUT 
24 HOURS...THEN INCREASE TO 25-30 KT IN 36 HOURS AND DIMINISH TO 
20 KT IN 42 HOURS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 
20 KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AS WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TRADES ALSO 
DIMINISH.


$$
AGUIRRE