000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JAN 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 
7N85W 7N92W 3N101W 6N112W 10N120W 11N131W 8N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 127W-132W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 132W-136W.

...DISCUSSION...

A RATHER STACKED 1017 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY SW IS 
NEAR 28N128W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW 28N125W TO 22N127W
TO 21N136W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A SWATH
OF N-N E 20-30 KT WINDS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW AND
N QUADRANTS. ALSO SHIP "PDGS" NEAR 28N131W REPORTED N WINDS
OF NEAR 30 KT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASCAT DATA ALSO INDICATED
AN AREA OF NE-E 20-25 KT WITHIN 180 NM NE OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS 
TRAPPED BETWEEN A LARGE RIDGE NW OF THE REGION THAT IS TILTING 
SOUTHEASTWARD AND AN AREA OF VERY BROAD RIDGING AT THE MID AND 
UPPER LEVELS TO ITS SE. THE LOW SHOULD BE NEAR 28N129W IN 24 
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AS RIDGING BUILDS S INTO THE NORTHERN 
PORTION OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH MAY POSSIBLY LINGER FROM THE LOW 
TO 25N125W TO 20N135W IN 24 HOURS AS WINDS N OF 28N AND W OF THE 
LOW TO 132W DIMINISH SOME TO 20-25 KT...AND CONTINUE AS E-SE 20 
KT WITHIN 120 NM E OF LOW TO AND TO THE N OF 28N. BY 36 HOURS...
THE LOW SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED WITH WINDS TO LESS THAN 20 KT...
HOWEVER AN AREA OF SE-S 20-25 KT IS FORECAST TO INTRUDE INTO THE
FAR WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE REGION WITH SEAS LARGE NW SWELLS RESULTING
IN SEAS OF 8-10 FT TO THE N OF 22N AND W OF 136W.
 
FURTHER S...TRADES WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT IN 48 HOURS WITH 
LINGERING NW SWELLS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8-10 FT FROM 2N-20N W OF
90W.

FURTHER N...1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N130W IS GENERATING 
MORE SWELL. ALSO FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA AS INDICATED FROM THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. THESE 
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.  

IN THE TROPICS...A 1010 NM LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA NEAR 5N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 2N E OF 82W. 
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N WINDS OF 20 KT WILL MATERIALIZE IN ABOUT 
30 HOURS...THEN INCREASE TO 25-30 KT IN 42 HOURS AND DIMINISH TO 
20-25 KT IN 48 HOURS AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS WILL RIBBEAN DIMINISH TOMORROW...WINDS 
FLOWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICA PASSES WILL IN TURN 
DIMINISH. AS A RESULT...FRESH WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TOMORROW. 

$$
AGUIRRE