000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JAN 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 06N77W 
TO 07N90W TO 04N100W TO 05N110W TO 09N120W TO 10N134W TO 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
7N TO 17N BETWEEN 124W AND 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 114W AND 124W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A FILLING 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS POSITIONED NEAR 29N128W. LATEST 
ASCAT PASS INDICATES FRESH NE WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE LOW. THIS 
LOW WILL DIMINISH WITHIN 24 HOURS WITH A LINGERING TROUGH 
THROUGH 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 48 
HOURS WITH LINGERING NW SWELL BECOMING THE MAIN MARINE CONCERN N 
OF 20N.

FURTHER S...TRADES WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT IN 48 HOURS WITH 
LINGERING NW SWELL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 90W. 

FURTHER N...1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N130W IS GENERATING 
MORE SWELL. ALSO FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA AS INDICATED FROM THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. THESE 
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.  

IN THE TROPICS...A 1010 NM LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA NEAR 5N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 2N E OF 82W. 
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GAP WINDS...
RESIDUAL 20 KT N TO NE WINDS REMAIN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 20 KT TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE 
ABOVE 20 KT ONCE AGAIN THU NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WINDS FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 
25-30 KT BY FRIDAY MORNING.  

LATEST ASCAT PASS INDICATES FRESH WINDS TO 20 KT PREVAILS OVER 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. AS TRADES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
DIMINISH TOMORROW...WINDS FLOWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICA 
PASSES WILL IN TURN DIMINISH. AS A RESULT...FRESH WINDS OVER THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TOMORROW. 

$$
FORMOSA