000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050908
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 06N80W 
TO 07N86W TO 04N102W TO 08N115W TO 06N125W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 114W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A FILLING 1018 MB SURFACE LOW IS POSITIONED NEAR 30N126W. LATEST 
ASCAT PASS INDICATES FRESH NE WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE LOW. THIS 
LOW WILL DIMINISH WITHIN 24 HOURS WITH A LINGERING TROUGH 
THROUGH 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 48 
HOURS WITH LINGERING NW SWELL BECOMING THE MAIN MARINE CONCERN N 
OF 20N.

DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE 1022 MB CENTERED NEAR 30N145W HAS 
RIDGE EXTENDING TO 25N130W. THIS IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF 
FRESH TRADES FROM 14N TO 22N W OF 130W AS INDICATED FROM THE 
LATEST ASCAT PASS. AS THE HIGH DISSIPATES...TRADES WILL DIMINISH 
BELOW 20 KT IN 48 HOURS WITH LINGERING NW SWELL ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE AREA W OF 100W. 

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS CREATING FRESH 
TO STRONG NW WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS INDICATED FROM 
THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE 
GULF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  

GAP WINDS...
RESIDUAL 20 KT N TO NE WINDS REMAIN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 20 KT TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE 
ABOVE 20 KT ONCE AGAIN THU NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WINDS FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 

LATEST ASCAT PASS INDICATES FRESH WINDS TO 20 KT PREVAILS OVER 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. AS TRADES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
DIMINISH TODAY...WINDS FLOWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICA 
PASSES WILL IN TURN DIMINISH. AS A RESULT...FRESH WINDS OVER THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY TONIGHT. 

$$
AL