000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050321
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JAN 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 05N80W 
TO 04N100W TO 09N116W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N134W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 120W AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 
1034 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UTAH NEAR 41N112W AND 
TROUGHING ALONG THE E COAST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA RESULTING 
IN NW TO N 20 KT WINDS FROM 25N TO 29N AS CAPTURED BY AN EARLIER 
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE AREA OF 20 KT WINDS WILL EXPAND TO 
ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY 24 HOURS SPILLING OUT 
S TO 21N W OF THE COAST OF MEXICO AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO 
TIGHTEN THEN WILL RETRACT BACK TO FROM 23N TO 29N BY 48 HOURS.

A 1016 MB SURFACE LOW IS POSITIONED NEAR 30N126W AND IS MOVING 
SW. A TROUGH WRAPS AROUND THE LOW REACHING FROM NEAR 30N123W TO 
24N132W WITH 20 KT WINDS OCCURRING N OF 27N AND W OF THE TROUGH 
TO 132W. NW SWELL UP TO 12 FT IS ALSO PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NW 
HALF OF THE AREA AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
MEANWHILE THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO NEAR 27N130W IN 24 HOURS THEN 
WILL DISSIPATE WITH A TROUGH REMAINING FROM 27N121W TO 20N124W 
BY 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 48 HOURS 
WITH THE LINGERING NW SWELL BECOMING THE MAIN MARINE CONCERN 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA N OF 04N W OF 105W.

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 09N134W WITH A TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM NEAR 15N127W THROUGH THE LOW TO 06N137W. AN 
EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20 KT WINDS OCCURRING FROM 12N TO 
15N E OF THE TROUGH TO 120W ALONG WITH AN AREA OF 20 KT TRADES 
FROM 16N TO 22N W OF 130W. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS 
WITH THE TROUGH REACHING FROM NEAR 24N122W TO 12N134W WITH 20 KT 
WINDS REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FEATURE. BY 48 HOURS THIS 
TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE TROUGH DESCRIBED IN THE PRECEDING 
PARAGRAPH.

GAP WINDS...
RESIDUAL 20 KT N TO NE WINDS REMAIN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W. A SHIP WITH CALL 
SIGN ZCDF4 EARLIER REPORTED 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS AND WINDS AT 
LAND BASED STATION IXTEPEC IN OAXACA MEXICO HAVE ALSO BEEN 
REPORTING 20 KT N WINDS DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS. EXPECT THESE 
WINDS TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT AROUND 18 UTC WED THEN WILL 
RETURN BY 18 UTC THU AND CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS.

NE TO E 20 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 90W FEEDING IN FROM THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH 
THE CENTRAL AMERICA PASSAGES. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS 
THAN 20 KT BY 00 UTC THU AS THE WIND FLOW IN THE CARIBBEAN 
WEAKENS.

$$
LEWITSKY