000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042136
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 05N82W 
TO 03N98W TO 09N110W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N134W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 112W AND 122W AND ALSO BETWEEN 128W AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 
1034 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER SE IDAHO NEAR 43N112W AND 
TROUGHING ALONG THE E COAST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA RESULTING 
IN NW TO N 20 KT WINDS FROM 24N TO 28N AS CAPTURED BY A 1642 UTC 
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE AREA OF 20 KT WINDS WILL EXPAND TO 
ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY 24 HOURS SPILLING OUT 
S TO 20N W OF THE COAST OF MEXICO.

A 1016 MB SURFACE LOW IS POSITIONED NEAR 30N126W AND IS MOVING 
SW. A TROUGH WRAPS AROUND THE LOW REACHING FROM NEAR 30N124W TO 
26N132W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 KT WINDS NW OF THE 
TROUGH. NW SWELL UP TO 12 FT IS ALSO PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NW 
HALF OF THE AREA AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
MEANWHILE THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO NEAR 28N129W IN 24 HOURS THEN 
WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW NEAR 23N124W BY 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 48 HOURS WITH THE LINGERING NW 
SWELL BECOMING THE MAIN MARINE CONCERN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA N 
OF 02N W OF 106W.

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 09N134W WITH A TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM NEAR 14N128W THROUGH THE LOW TO 06N136W. A RECENT 
1826 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20 KT WINDS OCCURRING FROM 11N TO 
18N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SW 
AND NW SWELL. THE SAME ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 KT TRADES OCCURRING 
FROM 16N TO 22N W OF 130W WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL. 
THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS WITH THE TROUGH REFORMING 
FROM NEAR 23N123W TO 12N131W WITH 20 KT WINDS REMAINING IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE FEATURE. BY 48 HOURS THIS TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH 
THE FEATURES DESCRIBED IN THE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH.

GAP WINDS...
RESIDUAL 20 KT WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT REMAIN IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95W. A SHIP 
WITH CALL SIGN ZCDF4 HAS BEEN REPORTING 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS 
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND WINDS AT LAND BASED STATION 
IXTEPEC IN OAXACA MEXICO HAVE ALSO BEEN RECENTLY REPORTING 20 TO 
25 KT N WINDS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT 
AROUND 00 UTC.

NE TO E 20 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 10N90W FEEDING IN FROM THE W CARIBBEAN 
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICA PASSAGES. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 00 UTC THU AS THE WIND FLOW IN THE 
CARIBBEAN WEAKENS.

1009 MB LOW PRES IS JUST S OF THE GULF OF PANAMA AND W OF 
COLOMBIA NEAR 05N78W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH 
THIS LOW. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE IN THE 
GULF OF PANAMA AND AROUND THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
WHILE THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

$$
LEWITSKY