000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041603
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
FROM LOW PRES NEAR 05N78W TO 07N85W TO 04N97W TO 07N109W TO 
08N130W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM 
TO THE NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 121W...AND WITHIN
45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 127W AND 129W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS TO THE EAST OF 86W...WITHIN 60 NM TO THE NORTH OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 96W...WITHIN 480 NM ON TO THE NORTH
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 115W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N TO THE
WEST OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 30N125W TO 22N129W. A COMPARATIVELY MUCH WEAKER 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 20N137W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW 
COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN 132W AND 145W. 
A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA 
NEAR 31N126W. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SE TO 29N127W WEDNESDAY 
MORNING...AND TO 27N130W THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N147W 
TO 23N134W TO 19N119W. THE LATEST ASCAT PASS FROM EARLIER DURING 
THE MIDNIGHT HOURS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS TO THE 
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS AND THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL DECREASE IN 
AREAL COVERAGE. 

IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO 25 KT 
CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE 
FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 12 HOURS OR SO
AS SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BE SETTING UP IN THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO...AND WINDS FLOWING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS
WILL DIMINISH.

IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO WILL PULSE THIS MORNING AND FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 
COMBINE WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS THAT ARE FUNNELING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICA PASSES WILL DIMINISH AND WINDS IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT AS THE 
TRADEWINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY.

IN THE GULF OF PANAMA...A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 
05N78W OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE LOW WILL REMAIN 
STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A LIMITED AREA OF
20 KT WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. 

IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 KT DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AS STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.

$$
MT