000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040910
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
FROM LOW PRES NEAR 05N79W TO 04N90W TO 09N107W TO 07N132W TO 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W 
AND 127W. 

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 
31N126W AS INDICATED BY LATEST ASCAT PASS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SE 
TO NEAR 29N126W LATE TUE NIGHT AND NEAR 27N130W LATE WED NIGHT. 
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
30N146W TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE 
LATEST ASCAT PASS INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 
THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS AND AS A RESULT...THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL DECREASE 
IN AREAL COVERAGE. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LATEST ASCAT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH 
TO STRONG WINDS TO 25 KT CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
WITH SE RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO...WINDS FLOWING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS WILL 
DIMINISH...AND WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH 
BELOW 20 KT THIS EVENING. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WILL PULSE THIS MORNING AND OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AS FRESH 
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN COMBINE WITH 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. AS THE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN DIMINISH WED...WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CENTRAL 
AMERICA PASSES WILL DIMINISH AND WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT. 

GULF OF PANAMA...A SURFACE LOW WITH AN ESTIMATED PRES OF 1008 MB 
WAS ANALYZED NEAR 05N79W OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE 
LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A 
LIMITED AREA OF 20 KT WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MODERATE NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT BY 
TUE NIGHT AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH OVER 
THE GREAT BASIN.

$$
AL