000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040337
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JAN 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
FROM FROM FROM LOW PRES NEAR 06N79W TO 04N98W TO 08N110W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 113W 
AND 116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 126W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N127W CONTINUES TO 
PIVOT SOUTHWARD AT THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. AN 
ASSOCIATED WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N130W WILL 
MOVE SE TO NEAR 30N126W. ASCAT DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW 
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW N OF 20N. WHILE WINDS 
REMAIN LIGHT...RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW NW SWELL OF 8 TO 12 
FT IS MOVING IN TO THE AREA N OF 24N W OF 130W. ELSEWHERE N OF 
24N LATEST SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND A JASON ALTIMETER PASS FROM 
SEVERAL HOURS AGO HINT THAT THE WAVEWATCH III INITIALIZATION MAY 
BE OVERDOING THE EXISTING SWELL HEIGHT N OF 20N. THE HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST FAVORS THE SLIGHTLY LOWER ECWAVE. A SURFACE RIDGE IS 
NOTED ORIENTED E-W ALONG 26N. S OF THE RIDGE...A SHIP 
OBSERVATION FROM 00Z AND AN 18Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TRADES 
14N TO 24N W OF 125W...AND FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 110W AND 
130W. SEAS WILL REMAIN 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED NW AND NE SWELL IN 
AREAS OF FRESH TRADE WINDS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...REPORTS FROM IXTEPEC AND SALINA CRUZ ON 
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS INDICATE WINDS AREA 
LIKELY BELOW 30 KT IN THE ADJACENT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH FURTHER TO BELOW 20 KT BY LATE TUE. SEAS IN EXCESS 
OF 8 FT GENERATED BECAUSE OF THE PERSISTENT STRONG WINDS WILL 
PROPAGATE TO 600 NM SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH LATE 
TUE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS AT LIBERIA MRLB WERE 
SHOWING GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT EARLIER TODAY...A GOOD 
INDICATION OF STRONG WINDS OVER ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS HAVE LIKELY TAPERED OFF...BUT GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THEY WILL PULSE AGAIN TO 20 TO 25 KT 
EARLY TUE MORNING DUE TO DRAINAGE EFFECTS...BEFORE DIMINISHING 
LATER IN THE DAY. RESIDUAL SWELL TO 8 FT WILL LINGER SEVERAL 
HUNDRED MILES SW OF THE GULF...MIXING WITH SW SWELL.

GULF OF PANAMA...A SURFACE LOW WITH AN ESTIMATED PRES OF 1007 MB 
WAS ANALYZED NEAR 06N79W OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED E OF THE CENTER BUT HAS 
SINCE SUBSIDED. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REFORM IN THE EARLY 
MORNING HOURS. THE LOW IS AIDED IN PART BY FRESH TO STRONG N 
WINDS FLOWING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. 
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH 24 HOURS AS THE WINDS VEER 
MORE NE TO E. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW WILL WEAKEN BUT PERSIST 
THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH SOME WINDS TO 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT BY 
TUE NIGHT AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH OVER 
THE GREAT BASIN.

$$
CHRISTENSEN