000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
FROM FROM LOW PRES NEAR 05N80W TO 07N110W TO 06N120W TO 08N130W 
TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 
110W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM 
N OF AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 43N129W CONTINUES TO 
PIVOT SOUTHWARD AT THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. AN 
ASSOCIATED WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 36N129W WILL 
MOVE SE TO NEAR 30N124W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N116W 
TO 26N119W WILL DIMINISH OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST OVERNIGHT. 
ASCAT DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENERALLY LIGHT TO 
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW N OF 20N...ALTHOUGH A SHIP DID REPORT 20 
KT WINDS NEAR 29N126W AROUND 17Z. WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...NW 
SWELL MAY BE AN ISSUE...FRESH NW SWELL OF 8 TO 13 FT WILL MOVE S 
OF 30N STARTING TONIGHT. LATEST SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND A JASON 
ALTIMETER PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO HINT THAT THE WAVEWATCH 
III INITIALIZATION MAY BE OVERDOING THE EXISTING SWELL HEIGHT N 
OF 20N. THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST FAVORS THE SLIGHTLY LOWER ECWAVE. 
FURTHER SOUTH...AN 18Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TRADES 14N TO 24N 
W OF 125W...AND FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W SOUTH OF 
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PUSHED SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SEAS 
WILL REMAIN 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED NW AND NE SWELL IN AREAS OF 
FRESH TRADE WINDS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING TO BELOW GALE 
FORCE AS THE AIRMASS TO THE NORTH MODIFIES AND HIGH PRES WEAKENS 
AND SHIFTS EAST. WINDS TO 30 KT WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 
SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THEN 
DIMINISH FURTHER TO BELOW 20 KT BY LATE TUE. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 
FT GENERATED BECAUSE OF THE PERSISTENT STRONG WINDS WILL 
PROPAGATE TO 600 NM SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH LATE 
TUE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS AT LIBERIA MRLB WERE 
SHOWING GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT EARLIER TODAY...A GOOD 
INDICATION OF STRONG WINDS OVER ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT 
RESIDUAL SWELL TO 8 FT WILL LINGER SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SW OF 
THE GULF...MIXING WITH SW SWELL.

GULF OF PANAMA...A SURFACE LOW WITH AN ESTIMATED PRES OF 1009 MB 
WAS ANALYZED NEAR 05N80W OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED E OF THE CENTER. THE LOW 
IS AIDED IN PART BY FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS FLOWING FROM THE SW 
CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
THROUGH 24 HOURS AS THE WINDS VEER MORE NE TO E. GLOBAL MODELS 
SHOW THE LOW WILL WEAKEN BUT PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH 
SOME WINDS TO 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT BY 
TUE NIGHT AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH OVER 
THE GREAT BASIN.

$$
CHRISTENSEN