000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031600
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
FROM 5N77W 6N84W 5N95W TO 7N110W TO 6N122W TO 8N128W TO 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 104W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 7N 
TO THE EAST OF 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
6N TO 10N TO THE WEST OF 109W.

...DISCUSSION...
ONE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 38N131W.
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE 
SOUTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 35N118W. A THIRD CYCLONIC 
CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEAR 26N140W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 140W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS MEXICO...
TO THE NORTH OF 20N...FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 110W FROM 2N TO 15N. MORE UPPER 
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE REST OF MEXICO
ALSO...TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N117W TO 28N120W TO 27N124W. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 
30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. LARGE NORTHWESTERLY
SWELLS ARE PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO 
HAS TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE REACHED
GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
DECREASE TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
THIS EVENING.

$$
MT