000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030336
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JAN 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
FROM 05N77W TO 04N83W TO 06N100W TO 06N105W TO 05N108W TO 
06N115W TO 09N128W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
NOTED.   

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N120W TO 27N130W TO 
28N140W. WHILE EARLIER SHIP REPORTS INDICATED THAT FRESH TO 
STRONG NW TO N WINDS FOLLOW THIS FRONT...LATEST SHIP REPORTS AND 
ASCAT DATA SHOW THAT WINDS ARE DOWN TO 15 TO 20 KT. THE UPPER 
SUPPORT FOR THE COLD FRONT IS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW MOVING 
THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL AND 
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THIS UPPER FEATURE 
SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL 
LOW ABOUT 360 NM W OF THE OREGON COAST PUSH SOUTH...AND BECOME 
CUTOFF NEAR 30N125W BY 48 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A 
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES AREA AROUND 1016 MB ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
DEEP LAYER CUTOFF LOW BY 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...LITTLE RELEVANT 
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS LOW. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL 
BE FAIRLY WEAK TRADE WIND FLOW S OF THE LOW PRES...MAINLY E OF 
130W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST W OF 130W...MAINLY 
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 25N. NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH 
THE AREA GENERALLY N OF 10N W OF 115W FROM THE N CENTRAL 
PACIFIC...WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT AND PERIODS FROM 10 TO 17 
SECONDS. SOME FRESH NE SWELL WILL BE INTEGRATED WITH THE NW 
SWELL IN THE AREA OF STRONGER TRADES.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...EARLIER ASCAT DATA SHOWED 20 WINDS THROUGH 
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF. THIS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS 
HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1544Z SHOWED 30 KT 
WINDS IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO OFF THE VERACRUZ COAST BEHIND A 
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION. DENSER COLD AND DRY 
AIR IS FILTERING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE ADJACENT GULF. THE 02Z OBSERVATION FROM 
IXTEPEC NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE ISTHMUS REPORTED WINDS TO 
30 KT. GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS SHOW INDICATE THAT WINDS TO 
GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS 
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT. THIS FLOW WILL TAPER OFF BY 
EARLY MON AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SHIFTS E AND THE AIRMASS 
OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO MODIFIES. WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW 20 KT 
BY LATE TUE...ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL NE TO E SWELL TO 8 FT WILL 
LINGER FURTHER OFFSHORE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A 1542Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 KT WINDS THROUGH 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...LIKELY DUE TO ENHANCED NE TO E FLOW OVER 
THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS FLOW WILL PERSIST AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY 
MON AIDED BY DRAINAGE EFFECTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 48 HOURS 
AS GRADIENT FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND 
WEAKENS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH N FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PANAMA MON...THEN TAPER OFF ON TUE.

$$
CHRISTENSEN