000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JAN 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
FROM 08N78W TO 05N86W TO 07N94W TO 06N105W TO 08N120W TO 07N135W 
TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE  WITHIN 60 NM ON S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 89W AND 92W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N123W TO 28N132W TO 
30N140W. SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N 
WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT...A LITTLE STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THE 
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET OR NOGAPS INITIALIZATIONS. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR 
THE COLD FRONT IS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL 
CALIFORNIA. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THIS UPPER FEATURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE 
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOUT 360 NM W OF 
THE OREGON COAST PUSH SOUTH...AND BECOME CUTOFF NEAR 30N125W BY 
48 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES 
AREA AROUND 1016 MB ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER CUTOFF LOW BY 
48 HOURS. HOWEVER...LITTLE RELEVANT SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED 
WITH THIS LOW. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK TRADE WIND 
FLOW S OF THE LOW PRES...MAINLY E OF 130W. FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADES WILL PERSIST W OF 130W...MAINLY BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 25N. 
NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA GENERALLY N OF 
10N W OF 115W FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC...WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 
12 FT AND PERIODS FROM 10 TO 17 SECONDS. SOME FRESH NE SWELL 
WILL BE INTEGRATED WITH THE NW SWELL IN THE AREA OF STRONGER 
TRADES.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ASCAT DATA SHOW 20 WINDS THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL GULF. THIS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES OVER THE 
GREAT BASIN WEAKENS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1544Z HINTED OF 20 KT N 
TO NE WINDS S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MORE IMPORTANTLY...IT 
ALSO SHOWED 30 KT WINDS IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO OFF THE 
VERACRUZ COAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE 
REGION. DENSER COLD AND DRY AIR IS FILTERING FROM THE GULF OF 
MEXICO THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE ADJACENT 
GULF. GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS SHOW INDICATE THAT WINDS TO 
GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS 
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT. THIS FLOW WILL TAPER OFF BY 
EARLY MON AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SHIFTS E AND THE AIRMASS 
OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO MODIFIES. WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW 20 KT 
BY LATE TUE...ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL NE TO E SWELL TO 8 FT WILL 
LINGER FURTHER OFFSHORE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A 1542Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 KT WINDS THROUGH 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...LIKELY DUE TO ENHANCED NE TO E FLOW OVER 
THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS FLOW WILL PERSIST AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY 
MON AIDED BY DRAINAGE EFFECTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 48 HOURS 
AS GRADIENT FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND 
WEAKENS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH N FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PANAMA MON...THEN TAPER OFF ON TUE.

$$
CHRISTENSEN