000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021604
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JAN 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
FROM 07N78W TO 05N83W TO 06N97W TO 06N105W TO 09N118W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 136W AND 140W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N77W 5N84W 5N89W 6N95W
7N100W... AND 8N123W 8N130W 7N134W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 36N125W CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 28N118W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD 
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N123W 29N133W TO 30N140W. 
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES 
THROUGH 32N119W TO 29N125W 28N133W BEYOND 30N140W. NORTHEASTERLY 
WINDS 20 KT ARE FROM 09N TO 23N TO THE WEST OF 110W. LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD AS THE FRONT MOVES 
EASTWARD.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 24N133W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE 
AREA FROM 19N TO 27N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC OCEAN AND IT IS PUSHING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE 
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MEXICO...WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
20N122W 25N112W BEYOND 30N100W. WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 
120W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST
OF 110W IS MOVING ACROSS THE REST OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FIRST BAND OF MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS.

HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS RANGING FROM 20 KT
TO 25 KT LATER TODAY IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THEN INCREASE TO 
30 KT DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
MONDAY IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

$$
MT