000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020325
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JAN 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED ALONG 07N78W TO 
06N104W TO 09N123W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
DISSIPATING WITHIN 30 NM OF 09N123W AND 07N138W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FLARING FROM 01N TO 07N E OF 113W TO THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...DISCUSSION...
A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING CENTRAL N AMERICA CONTINUES 
SW ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO TO OVER THE E PACIFIC ALONG 
32N105W TO 26N109W TO 10N118W INTO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS 
AT 01N118W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DROPPING SE INTO THE LARGER 
PATTERN...WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 32N123W TO 27N132W. UPPER MOISTURE 
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE IS MERGING WITH AN AREA OF UPPER 
MOISTURE NOTED FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 130W 113W. THE MOISTURE 
CONCENTRATES INTO A NARROW PLUME CONTINUING E ACROSS NORTHERN 
OLD MEXICO AND CENTRAL TEXAS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE 
DEEP TROPICS E OF 95W SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SMALL 
CLUSTERS WITH HEIR DEBRIS MOISTURE EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING 
CENTRAL AMERICA. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED 
BETWEEN THE THE UPPER TROUGH AND THIS RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 120 
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 07N121W TO 17N102W. CONVECTION IS 
INTERMITTENTLY ENHANCED ALONG THIS LINE...WITH THE MOST 
SIGNIFICANT NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF 12N108W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS 
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AND THE GULF 
OF MEXICO WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N113W TO 
20N96W TO BEYOND 32N83W WHERE IT FUELS CONVECTION OVER THE SE 
C0NUS.  

A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS BRIEFLY STALLED ALONG 32N BETWEEN 130W 
AND 140W BUT WILL MOVE SE AGAIN REACHING ALONG POSITION FROM 
32N123W TO 26N140W LATE SUN AND WASHING OUT FROM 30N117W TO
22N130W ON MON. ONLY A 15 TO 20 KT WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE 
FRONT...BUT NW LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO ABOUT 13 FT 
W OF THE FRONT. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 10 FT AS 
THEY REACH THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE MON...AND 
ABOUT 8 FT AS THEY REACH THE SOUTH TIP OF BAJA WED.     
 
SURFACE HIGH PRES 1022 MB IS ANALYZED NEAR 30N120W. AN AREA OF 
NE 15 TO 20 KT TRADE WINDS IS ENHANCED FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 128W 
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND E ON SUN 
AND MON TO COVER THE WATERS FROM 08N TO 25N W OF 120W AND ALSO 
FROM 09N TO 17N BETWEEN 125W AND 110W.
 
NORTHERLY 15 TO 20 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD 
PERSIST THROUGH SUN THEN DIMINISH EARLY SUN NIGHT. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND E PAC ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 
89W...NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE AT 15 TO TO 20 KT 
THROUGH SUN THEN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT ON MON. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN 
FILTERING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS LATE TONIGHT INCREASING TO 20 
TO 25 KT AROUND SUNRISE SUN...FURTHER INCREASING 20 TO 30 KT 
LATE SUN AND MON...DIMINISHING MON NIGHT. 

GULF OF PANAMA...N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT 
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA SUN NIGHT SPREADING S TO OVER THE AREA 
N OF 06N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W MON AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 
ABOUT 6 FT.
  
$$
NELSON