000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JAN 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED ALONG 07N77W TO 
06N95W TO 09N118W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
DISSIPATING WITHIN 60 NM OF 05N86W AND 07.5N100W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 01N TO 07N E OF 92W TO THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...DISCUSSION...
A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING CENTRAL N AMERICA CONTINUES 
SW ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO TO OVER THE E PACIFIC ALONG 
27N110W TO 12N117W INTO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 02N120W. 
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DROPPING SE INTO THE LARGER PATTERN...WITH 
ITS AXIS ALONG 32N123W TO 29N133W. UPPER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES 
THE SHORTWAVE...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL SOON MERGE WITH ANOTHER 
AREA OF UPPER MOISTURE NOTED FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 130W 115W. 
THE MOISTURE IS CONCENTRATING INTO AS PLUME MOVING E ACROSS 
NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...THEN NARROWING AS 
IT SPREADS NE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE 
DOMINATES THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 95W AND IS SUPPRESSING 
CONVECTION TO THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED SMALL CLUSTERS ALONG THE 
ITCZ. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED BETWEEN THE THE 
UPPER TROUGH AND THIS RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF LINE 07N121W TO 17N102W. CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED ALONG THIS 
LINE EARLIER...BUT CURRENTLY ONLY ISOLATED STRONG IS NOTED 
WITHIN 30 NM OF 13N111W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS 
ADVECTED NE ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO 
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 13N110W TO 22N93W TO 
32N84W...AND IS FUELING THE CONVECTION OVER THE SE CONUS.  

AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
32N140W AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH ALONG 30N125W TO 27N140W SUN 
THEN BEGIN TO WASH OUT FROM 30N118W TO 23N130W ON MON. ONLY A 15 
TO 20 KT WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NW LONG 
PERIOD SWELLS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO ABOUT 13 FT W OF THE 
FRONT...AND EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 9 FT AS THEY REACH THE 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE MON...AND ABOUT 8 FT AS 
THEY REACH THE SOUTH TIP OF BAJA TUE NIGHT.     
 
SURFACE HIGH PRES 1022 MB IS QUASI STATIONARY NEAR 31N130W. AN 
AREA OF NE 15 TO 20 KT TRADE WINDS IS ENHANCED FROM 07N TO 13N W 
OF 125W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND E 
ON SUN AND MON TO COVER THE WATERS FROM 08N TO 25N W OF 135W AND 
ALSO FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 135W AND 110W.
 
NORTHERLY 15 TO 20 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD 
PERSIST THROUGH SUN THEN DIMINISH SUN NIGHT. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND E PAC FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 89W...NE TO E 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE AT 15 TO TO 20 KT THROUGH SUN THEN 
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT ON MON. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN 
FILTERING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS LATE TONIGHT INCREASING TO 20 
TO 25 KT AROUND SUNRISE SUN...FURTHER INCREASING 20 TO 30 KT 
LATE SUN AND MON. 

GULF OF PANAMA...N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT 
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA SUN NIGHT SPREADING S TO OVER THE AREA 
N OF 06N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W MON AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 
ABOUT 6 FT.
  
$$
NELSON