000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010328
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JAN 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM 1008 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 07N79W TO 06N90W TO 08N110W TO 09N120W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W... AND FROM 
05N TO 08N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS 
FROM 13N117W TO 07N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
08N TO 11N BETWEEN 113W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N130W. A COLD FRONT IS FURTHER 
W FROM 32N136W TO 28N144W MOVING E. A SWELL TRAIN FROM THE NW IS 
N OF 20N BETWEEN 113W AND 130W PUSHING S. 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS 
ARE ALSO W OF 130W BETWEEN 08N AND 18N. THESE TRADES ARE 
EXPECTED TO RETREAT W OF 136W THROUGH SAT MORNING. A NEW HIGH 
WILL REBUILD W OF THE FRONT AND A NEW NW SWELL TRAIN WILL EXPAND 
TO 26N W OF 120W IN 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...20 KT N WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 24N IN 24 HOURS. 

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 5N BETWEEN 100W AND 133W. 
ELSEWHERE... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER COLOMBIA AND THE E 
PACIFIC E OF 90W N OF THE EQUATOR SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW 
NEAR 07N79W.

GAP WINDS...
N TO NE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE PULSING TO 20 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT IN THE EARLY 
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TRADE WINDS FROM 
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEEP THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICA HIGH 
TERRAIN AND ARE ENHANCED BY MORNING MOUNTAIN DRAINAGE FLOW.

EARLY SUNDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN 
FILTERING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS 
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS EVENT WILL INTRODUCE N 
WINDS INITIALLY 20-25 KT...INCREASING THEREAFTER TO 30 KT BY 
LATE SUNDAY. 

$$
FORMOSA