000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260326
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN DEC 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 08N110W TO 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION NOTED. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
ITCZ ANALYZED FROM 10N122W TO 06N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 118W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...A LARGE AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM GULF OF ALASKA TO 32N121W TO 26N123W. 
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 32N121W TO 30N121W TO 
25N125W TO 21N136W. EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND THE LATEST GLOBAL 
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS 
NORTHEASTWARD...THE AREA OF S TO SW WINDS IS TRENDING SMALLER IN 
AREAL COVERAGE...REMAINING N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT 
THIS EVENING. LIKEWISE...20 KT NW WINDS W OF THE FRONT TO 127W 
ARE FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER 
MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 10N BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THIS 
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...THE RESULTANT INCREASED PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N130W AT 27/0000 UTC 
AND THE ITCZ REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE A GENEROUS AREA OF 
NE TO E TRADE WIND FLOW. THIS FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND IN 
AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD BUILDING SEAS TO 12 
FT W OF 130W IN THE PROCESS. MEANWHILE...RESIDUAL NW SWELL WILL 
CONTINUE FILTERING SE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THIS AREA W OF 110W 
AS SEAS N OF 20N SUBSIDE GRADUALLY.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS AND GLOBAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY FLOW HAS REACHED THE CHIVELA 
PASS AND DENSER AIR HAS BEGUN FILTERING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED TO 18N94W IN 
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND THEREFORE OPENS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR  
GALE FORCE WINDS BY 26/0600 UTC...PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY 
MONDAY. THIS EVENT WILL CREATE A LARGE PLUME OF NE SWELL BY THE 
END OF THE PERIOD...REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS 07N.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GRADIENT AND DRAINAGE FLOW EFFECTS WILL 
TOGETHER INITIATE A PULSE OF 20 KT FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL THEN POSSIBLY DIMINISH 
SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THEN REGENERATE SUNDAY 
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS STRONGER FLOW TO 25 KT AND SLIGHTLY 
DENSER AIR PUSHES INTO THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN...AND THROUGH THE 
PAPAGAYO AREA. 

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF OF 
PANAMA BY MONDAY MORNING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN.

$$
HUFFMAN