000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240950
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI DEC 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 03N78W TO 07N104W TO 06N120W TO 09N134W TO 09N140W. 
TROUGH WITHIN ITCZ FROM 10N100W TO 06N102W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS W OF 131W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP DEEP LAYER TROUGH APPROACHES NW CORNER OF BASIN SUPPORTING 
COLD FRONT AND ADVECTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE.  OTHERWISE AIR MASS 
OVER BASIN REMAINS FAIRLY DRY UNDER BROAD ANTICYCLONE.  ONLY 
OTHER MINOR POINT OF MOISTURE IS ALONG WEAK SURFACE TROUGH 
EMBEDDED IN ITCZ NEAR 104W. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE... 
STUBBORN HIGH PRES 1023 MB AT 32N122W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 
17N112W BLOCK SOUTHERN INTRUSION OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING NW 
CORNER OF E PAC.  TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH RIDGE PROMPTS STRONG 
SW FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT N OF 25N THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AND 
FRESH NW WINDS ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH SAT.  FRONT 
MOVE E ACROSS N WATERS EXTENDING FROM 32N131W TO 25N140W LATE 
FRI AND FROM 30N122W TO 20N130W LATE SAT.  LARGE LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELL UP TO 14-16 FT BEHIND FRONT EXPECTED TO SPREAD SE REACHING 
AS FAR S AS 22N.  

FRESH CROSS EQUATORIAL SE BREEZE OVER TROPICAL WATERS S OF 07N W 
OF 125W EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SUN. 
   
GAP WINDS...
STRONG NE BREEZE THROUGH GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT...BUT INCREASE AGAIN TO POSSIBLE 
GALE FORCE STRENGTH BY END OR SLIGHTLY BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

FRESH NE WINDS THROUGH GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA CONTINUE TO 
PULSE THROUGH EARLY FRI THEN DIMINISH.  
     
$$
WALLY BARNES